Marine Le Pen’s party to win French vote in EU election, exit poll shows

Paris — French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a heavy defeat in European parliament elections on Sunday, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party sealing a definitive win that underlines her credentials as front-runner for France’s 2027 presidential vote.

Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party, led by Jordan Bardella, won about 32% of the vote, more than double the Macron ticket’s 15%, according to the first exit polls. The Socialists came within a whisker of Macron, with 14%.

Le Pen’s strong showing, notching a 10-point increase on the last EU election in 2019, will weaken Macron's hold on power three years before the end of his final term. It could also prompt high-level defections from his centrist camp as the succession battle to replace him heats up.

In a victory speech to a rapturous audience at party headquarters, Bardella urged Macron to call for a new legislative election, though the president is under no obligation to follow suit.

“Emmanuel Macron is this evening a weakened president,” he said. “The president cannot remain deaf to the message sent by the French tonight.”

Le Pen and Bardella sought to frame the EU election as a midterm referendum on Macron’s mandate, tapping into discontent with immigration, crime and a two-year inflation crisis.

With widespread expectations of a bruising loss, government officials sought to downplay the importance of the European poll, pledging to maintain policy focus and arguing that EU elections are a poor predictor of presidential voting.

But the symbolism of the loss is significant, and could have real implications.

Le Pen may be able to lure conservative rebels to a party with a clear sense of momentum that looks increasingly well placed for the 2027 election, albeit three years out.

The fate of Macron’s current government will hinge on whether the conservative Republicans party, which garnered a meagre 7%, will decide to table a no-confidence motion. Sources say that is unlikely to happen before the Paris Olympics, due to start on July 26.

Starting shot

Macron’s defeat also fires the starting gun on his succession battle.

Several big names, such as former prime minister Edouard Philippe, the current one, Gabriel Attal, and finance minister Bruno Le Maire are all eager to take the top job, political sources say. However, an April poll by Le Figaro showed Le Pen beating both Attal and Philippe in the 2027 vote.

“The results also prompt a more existential question about the future of Macron’s party once he leaves office,” Eurointelligence analysts wrote in a note. “Will it fragment or find a new leader to unite behind?”

Philippe’s fledgling new party, Horizons, which is sitting with Macron’s Renaissance in parliament, will hold a meeting of its political bureau on Monday, an aide said, to plot its next moves.

Sunday’s results also saw the resurgence of the French centre-left, with Socialist candidate Raphael Glucksmann, a pro-Ukraine moderate, who won about 14%. His strong showing will embolden the Socialists, who had faced electoral oblivion after Macron’s 2017 election win.

On the European front, Macron’s score, coupled with the collapse of his Spanish and Dutch allies, means his mainstream liberal Renew grouping was among the biggest losers in the European parliament, reducing his influence in Brussels.

The results would translate into 31 seats in the EU parliament for Le Pen’s National Rally, 14 seats for Macron’s Renaissance and 13 seats for the Socialists led by Raphael Glucksmann, according to an IFOP poll.

Reuters