Way back in 2009 the ANC commissioned a poll that revealed its problem with stark clarity. In Gauteng, the poor and the working classes backed the party staunchly. But the further up the income scale you went, the more black support dissolved. By the time you hit earnings of R7,000 a month less than 50% of black people expressed support for the governing party.

The urban middle classes, it seemed, were leading SA into the future. For they appeared to be on the brink of breaking from old allegiances and voting for something new...

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