MATLALA SETLHALOGILE: ANC Gauteng is pursuing dominance not reflected in May vote

In the 1870s, the southern parts of the US were afflicted by a regression of their democratic gains. A “redemption” movement emerged, which sought to reverse the extension of civil rights to African-Americans. It was in sharp contrast to the more inclusive, equalitarian democracy most other Americans were committed to, a “reconstruction” characterised by political changes and constitutional amendments to create a more inclusive society. 

The redemption movement wanted to cling on to the untenable past, even though only reconstruction made sense at the time. Conservative white supremacists in the southern parts of the US organised themselves and, through the use of violence by terrorist groupings such as the Ku Klux Klan, “redeemed” state governments. Redemption was simply the restoration of a “white man’s government” — a ruthless subversion of democracy. 

That period was aptly encapsulated by WEB Du Bois as a period when “the slave went free; stood a brief moment in the sun; then moved back again towards slavery”. African-Americans only had rights in theory as redeemers unleashed unparalleled violence on those who sought to exercise those rights or even advocated for them. 

While this period was brutal and inhumane, and nowhere near the contemporary realities of SA, the mentality exhibited in the Gauteng government of provincial unity (GPU) negotiations and the subsequent outcome could be argued to be akin to those of the redeemers. The negotiations painted a picture of an ANC in the province that seems to be committed to fending off the reality of a political landscape undergoing reconstruction — an attempt to cling on to the political landscape of the past. 

The watershed election of May 29 has starkly painted a picture of seismic shifts in our political landscape, a shift that has set our political landscape on the reconstruction path. The attitude of the ANC’s political class in the Gauteng negotiations brings to mind Harold Macmillan’s 1960s monumental the “winds of change” speech. In that speech, he remarked, standing before SA’s parliament, “the wind of change is blowing…”. Well, this wind might not necessarily be blowing through the continent right now, but it is definitely blowing through SA. 

Among the most notable aspects of Macmillan’s speech was the acknowledgment that the political class’s actions need to take the reality of winds of change into account. It was a call the political class of the time in SA blatantly ignored. It ignored the seismic shifts that had occurred in political attitudes and the political landscape, and in doing so merely deferred the inevitable. 

The Gauteng ANC has seemingly embarked on a similar journey, ignoring the realities of a changing political landscape. The ANC political class in Gauteng seeks to effect a redemption of sorts to the single-party dominance — even when the political landscape has been permanently reconstructed. As was the case with the redemption movement of the 1870s in the US, the ANC leadership in Gauteng is swimming against the tide. It is an unfortunate and unsustainable development. 

The voters in Gauteng have given a fragmented mandate, which means the spectre of coalition politics has got itself permanent residency in the province. This is reflected by the government formed in the province. Despite the name, the ANC has essentially entered into a multiparty coalition in Gauteng. And in coalition arrangements games are continuously unfolding. This is when the struggle to give a unified front as parties to a coalition clashes with the need to maintain individual party profiles. 

The Gauteng ANC appears to believe it is entitled to lead as if that is its God-given right, when in fact the province contributed significantly to the ANC’s catastrophic electoral collapse nationally. It was the voters of the province that rejected the party most comprehensively on May 29. The ANC's share of the vote in Gauteng declined from 50.19% in the previous election to 34.76%, a 15.43 percentage point or 31% drop in proportional support. 

This is obviously well short of a majority. Yet contrary to this reality the party’s political class in Gauteng are trying to dictate terms as if single-party dominance is still in existence. This is the closest any party can get to political suicide, especially given that the ANC is going to have to rely heavily on other parties to achieve anything of substance in the legislature, not to mention to repel the likely motions of no confidence, which require a simple majority to succeed. Most insane is the fact that the party returned the same leadership that was repudiated by the voters in the May elections. 

Just like the redeemers, the ANC in Gauteng are employing brute force to pursue an unsustainable dominance that is not reflected in electoral outcomes. Having eight representatives, including the premier, in the province’s executive is simple entitlement. The party has, in essence, allocated itself almost 73% of the province’s executive, well over double its level of electoral support. The makeup of the executive could even be construed as a subversion of democratic electoral outcomes as the party-led GPU does not even constitute 50%+1 in the province. This is a different reality to that of KwaZulu-Natal, where government was formed by a coalition of parties that together constituted an absolute majority. 

The actions of the ANC in Gauteng have failed to take into account the prevailing realities — the reconstruction of the political landscape, which has in effect disassembled one-party dominance. As such, this has become a missed opportunity for the party to adjust and adapt to the realities of coalitions and co-governance at a provincial level. 

While it may seem as if the realities of co-governance in Gauteng, as presented by the electoral outcomes, have been snatched in much the same way the freedoms of African-Americans were temporarily reversed by the redeemers, time will set the record straight. The blatant subversion of the outcomes of a democratic process will have consequences.

In time, the political class of redeemers will come to terms with the inevitability of more profound change. The implausibility of political dominance in the absence of electoral dominance will soon reveal itself. The era of single-party dominance is over in SA. The wind of change has blown through Gauteng. 

• Setlhalogile, a political analyst, is a lecturer at the Wits School of Governance. He writes in his personal capacity.