ANDILE NTINGI: New ideological battle lines drawn in GNU

SA politics is likely to dish out a hefty dose of intrigue and excitement over the next five years.

The recent elections that ended the ANC’s 30-year outright majority and forced it into a multiparty coalition government has reshaped our country’s political landscape in a way few could have predicted.

This tectonic political shift has also drawn new ideological battle lines where the fragile, but business-friendly coalition government that has been described as government of national unity (GNU) will be bitterly challenged in parliament by a conglomerate of mostly left-leaning opposition parties that have clubbed together under the banner of the Progressive Caucus.

The ANC, which leads the GNU, has been heavily criticised by leaders of its breakaway fragments, the MK party and the EFF, for teaming up with DA, which they accuse of being racist and representing interests of white capitalists. 

Jacob Zuma and Julius Malema, as leaders of the MK party and EFF respectively, claim the ANC has sold out black South Africans to their former oppressors and that this betrayal may reverse the gains made by black people since the dawn of democracy in 1994. 

The ANC has been losing its grip on power since it won a two-thirds majority in 2004. The party’s inability to rein in some of its leaders implicated in plundering of state funds severely weakened its capacity to govern and eroded its support base.   

The reform-minded but indecisive Cyril Ramaphosa, who became the party’s president in December 2017, has been unable to stem its downward spiral. He has struggled to get his reform agenda going while the ANC has continued to bleed supporters due to its failure to turn around a stagnant economy, reduce high unemployment and improve public services. 

The ANC will be relieved that the MK party and EFF are not involved in the GNU. A power-sharing government involving its antagonistic former bedfellows would have been unstable and probably further accelerate the decline in the ANC’s electoral support, which collapsed from a peak of 66.35% in 2004 to 40.2% in 2024c.

The GNU, whose members collectively received no less than 70% of votes in the 2024 election, is also not an entirely safe refuge for the ANC. It has already engaged in a power struggle with the DA, the country’s second-largest political party, over fair allocation of cabinet posts, raising concerns that the GNU may still disintegrate.

Supporters of the GNU are hopeful that the ANC and DA will iron out their differences to ensure the coalition government remains intact and keep its biggest enemies, the MK party and EFF, at bay.

The MK party and EFF jointly obtained 24% of the vote in the elections, making them an influential voice representing Marxist-communists in parliament.

To keep the MK party and EFF away from power the GNU will have to address the huge economic challenges the ANC has been unable to overcome over the last 15 years.    

Since 2009 the economy has been at a virtual standstill, growing at an average annual rate of 1.14%, while unemployment jumped from 20.5% in 2009 to 32.9% currently, leaving millions of South Africans without jobs. 

This poor economic performance has also been worsened by low levels of fixed investment as local investors refrained from investing in new projects or expanding old ones.

In an ideal world SA’s annual fixed investment should be sitting at about 30% of GDP, but it has been closer to 15% of GDP for the last two decades, which is insufficient to inject pace into economic growth.

However, the financial markets have cheered the GNU, causing the rand to appreciate against the dollar while shares on the JSE have gained. The confidence the markets have shown towards the GNU must be used as building blocks for attracting fixed investment and supporting entrepreneurs who want to start businesses.

To attract fixed investment the GNU must remove the bottlenecks that make our country unappealing to investors, such as the skills shortage, the high cost of capital and energy and logistics constraints.

The GNU can further boost investor confidence by professionalising the civil service and uprooting entrenched corrupt networks in state institutions that siphon off public funds and degrade the quality of public services.

The 2024 election has shown that South Africans are no longer willing to put up with corruption and poor service delivery. The GNU gives Ramaphosa a second chance to redeem himself after having failed to deliver on the promises he made in inspiring 2017 speeches, where he undertook to revive the economy and end poverty.

The “New Dawn” and “New Deal” speeches endeared him to many South Africans and lifted the nation’s mood in what the media dubbed a period of “Ramaphoria”. His die-hard supporters will hope that he does not squander this opportunity to redeem himself. As much as Ramaphosa will be closely watched by investors, so will the behaviour of the MK party and EFF from the opposition benches.

Will the MK party and EFF be able to capitalise if the GNU fails to change the fortunes of our country? If it misfires, it may open a door for the radical left to convince voters to give it a chance to ascend to power in 2029 to implement its own version of wealth redistribution policies such as expropriation of land without compensation, nationalisation of banks and mines, and provision of free education and free health.

The next five years will redefine SA politics, for better or for worse.

• Ntingi is founder of e-procurement platform GetBiz.