CHRISTOPHER PAPPAS: No easy way forward for KwaZulu-Natal

The elections in KwaZulu-Natal have ushered in a significant shift in the political landscape of the province. The results have delineated a clear picture of the populace’s preferences, yet they also forewarn of potential challenges ahead.

The outcomes for the 80 seats in the provincial legislature are as follows: uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) 37 seats; IFP 15 seats; ANC 14; DA 11; EFF two seats; and National Freedom Party NFP one seat.

At the forefront of this shift is the MK party. This victory, however, comes with substantial concerns. The party, led by Jacob Zuma — a figure synonymous with corruption, fraud and state capture — has a troubling foundation. Zuma’s tenure as president of SA was marred by scandal, and his association with the MK party casts a long shadow over its legitimacy and governance potential.

The party’s stance against free market enterprise, the constitution, nonracialism and equality before the law poses a direct threat to the democratic and economic stability of KwaZulu-Natal. Its policies, though not formally recorded anywhere, suggest a move towards a more centralised and state-controlled economy, which historically has not yielded positive results for any region. This approach could stifle economic growth, deter foreign investment, and lead to increased unemployment and poverty.

The MK’s potential coalition partner, the EFF, secured two seats. While its presence in the legislature is relatively small, its influence cannot be underestimated. The EFF, led by Julius Malema, is known for its authoritarian leadership, opposition to property rights, and racially divisive rhetoric. Their policies advocate nationalisation and a strong central state, aligning closely with the MK party’s vision.

An MK-EFF coalition government would be disastrous for KwaZulu-Natal. Such a coalition would likely steer the province away from the principles of free market enterprise, potentially leading to economic regression. The EFF’s track record of racially charged politics could worsen social tensions in a province already grappling with its diverse demographic makeup.

The IFP, with 15 seats, and the ANC, with 14 seats, hold a significant portion of the legislature but fall short of forming a majority. The DA, with 11 seats, also represents a substantial share. These parties, while diverse in their political ideologies, generally uphold the principles of free market enterprise, constitutional democracy, and nonracialism.

In this fragmented legislature, the possibility of coalition politics looms large. The IFP, ANC and DA could potentially form a coalition to counterbalance the MK-EFF alliance. Such a coalition, though ideologically diverse, would be united in its commitment to maintaining democratic principles and promoting economic stability. This coalition could provide a crucial check against the MK-EFF’s more extreme policies.

However, forming and maintaining such a coalition would require significant political will and compromise. The IFP, ANC and DA would need to find common ground on key issues and present a united front. This task, while challenging, is not insurmountable and could provide a viable path forward for KwaZulu-Natal.

The election results also reflect the electorate’s desire for change. The MK’s significant win suggests a disillusionment with the status quo, particularly with the ANC, which has dominated SA politics for decades. This desire for change, however, must be carefully navigated to avoid replacing one set of problems with another.

KwaZulu-Natal stands at a critical juncture. The choices made by its political leaders in the coming months will have far-reaching implications for the province's future. An MK-EFF coalition government would likely lead to economic decline and increased social tensions. Conversely, a coalition of the IFP, ANC and DA could provide a stabilising force, promoting economic growth and social cohesion.

The elections in the province have highlighted the complexities and challenges of the political landscape. The electorate has voiced a desire for change, but the path forward requires careful navigation. A coalition government committed to democratic principles and economic stability could steer KwaZulu-Natal towards a prosperous future. The alternative, an MK-EFF alliance, poses significant risks. It is incumbent on the political leaders to rise to the occasion, prioritise the province’s best interests, and work towards a stable and prosperous future for all its citizens.

• Pappas is the DA's premier candidate for KwaZulu-Natal.