GABRIEL MAKIN AND IMKE TIADEN: Opinion poll sheds light on Western Cape political situation

During July the Social Research Foundation conducted an opinion polling study of the Western Cape.

The study featured topics ranging from public perception of the relative performance of the national and provincial governments, perceptions of the DA as a governing party, the extent of any demand for an alternative governing administration, the favourability levels of a broad cross section of provincial politicians, the opinions of people who had migrated to the province compared to those who were born there, and comparisons of how political and social opinion split by race, political affiliation and socioeconomic status.

The foundation has begun to release the core findings via a series of what will become 13 reports. This article presents some of the key findings. 

Part of what motivated the Western Cape poll was to determine the stability of the government in that province and how its political makeup may change into the future.

A lot is said about the Western Cape as being distinct in some respects from the rest of the country, and that it is bucking national trends on certain indicators. For wealthier South Africans and those in business circles the idea is often cast about that it offers a more desirable lifestyle and investment option compared to its eight provincial peers. The foundation wished to test the extent to which this perception held true.

On the lower end of SA’s social and economic strata the province also draws large numbers of poor and unemployed migrants, especially from the Eastern Cape, and their opinions and experiences have never been recorded in any great degree of detail.

The province’s demographic makeup also tends to surprise outsiders, especially in the fact that the white population is relatively small at just under 20%, followed by the black population at about 30% and the coloured population at around half of the provincial population.

Given the performance parties such as the Patriotic Alliance have recorded in select recent by-elections, the foundation wished to test how those demographics might see the political market evolve over time.

Lastly, previous foundation polling suggests that while the ANC may hold its national majority in 2024 it is likely to surrender outright control of Gauteng as it did in the Western Cape, and in anticipation of that the foundation wanted to test how the ANC is perceived by its erstwhile supporters in the years after losing control of an area it once governed. 

A first finding of the study was that only a small minority of registered voters in the Western Cape believe the country is going in the right direction at national level. However, a significant majority of those same voters hold the view that their province is moving in the right direction. Accordingly, about eight in 10 provincial voters believe the Western Cape is better managed than the rest of the country, while seven in 10 believe their quality of life has improved under the DA, and six in 10 believe the DA cares about their communities.

However, in a theme that would run through all the opinions tracked in the study, a clear split between racial — and therefore socioeconomic — lines emerged, with poorer communities, black voters and Xhosa speakers holding decidedly more negative opinions of the DA government than better-off voters, coloured, Indian and white voters, and Afrikaans and English speakers.

A second finding was that DA leaders were by far the most favoured politicians in the province. In order these were premier Alan Winde, DA national leader John Steenhuisen, Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis and DA federal chair Helen Zille. The next most popular figure was GOOD’s Patricia de Lille, with President Cyril Ramaphosa being the sixth most popular figure in the province. However, the same socioeconomic, racial and language divergences appeared in the data. 

Western Cape voters were also asked how they would vote on their national ballot papers. Modelled for a 66% level of voter turnout, the DA was set to receive 55%, the EFF 15%, the ANC 8%, the PA also 8% and the ACDP 4% (be aware that these numbers are not presented as election forecasts but rather as an indication of what may have transpired had an election been held in July).

The other, smaller parties all had results within the margin of error of the study (2.9%), so their results should be interpreted with caution. The striking finding was that the EFF may have sufficiently eroded ANC support to usurp its role as the official opposition in the province. 

On the provincial ballot, and again modelled for a 66% turnout level, the DA was set to get 64%, the EFF 15%, the ANC 13% and the ACDP 5%. The data therefore suggested a high degree of ballot splitting among voters, with coloured voters exploring coloured nationalist options on their national ballots but consolidating around the DA for the provincial ballot. 

The foundation also explored the extent and motivations for “semigration” to the Western Cape. The phenomenon has been extensive, with a significant share of likely voters in the province having been born in other provinces. Poorer immigrants moved chiefly from the Eastern Cape in pursuit of jobs and have remained isolated from, and mainly hostile to, the DA provincial government, rating its performance on par with how they rate the ANC at a national level.

An allegiance switch of Eastern Cape immigrant voters from the ANC to the EFF has likely been significant and may serve as a precursor to what befalls the ANC in other provinces in the years after surrendering its former majorities.

Among wealthier immigrants, predominantly from Gauteng, the motivations for moving to the Western Cape related to perceived better economic opportunities, improved governance and more stability. Such immigrants are largely staunch supporters of the DA-led government, reinforcing the socioeconomic divide that has emerged as such a striking feature of Western Cape politics.    

Later this month the foundation will poll KwaZulu-Natal in a similar degree of detail to that of the Western Cape.

• Makin is an associate at the Social Research Foundation and Tiaden is an intern.