Oil ticks up in cautious trade as recession fears fade

Singapore — Oil prices rose slightly on Monday as traders remained cautious despite receding fears of a US recession, which drove prices down for three consecutive weeks for the first time since November.

Brent crude futures were up 11c, or 0.2%, at $75.41 a barrel at 2.52am GMT (4.52am). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 12c, also 0.2%, at $71.46.

“Oil’s rebound follows energy stocks’ comeback on Wall Street last Friday after the US reported strong job data, which eased concerns about an imminent economic recession that led to the sell-off early in the week,” said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets.

Fears that the US banking crisis will slow the economy and sap fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil consuming nation drove the Brent benchmark down 5.3% last week, while WTI plunged 7.1%.

However a healthy US jobs report for April, a weaker dollar, and expectations of supply cuts at the next meeting of Opec+, in June, helped the benchmarks rebound about 4% each on Friday.

“Crude prices are trying to stabilise as energy traders wait to see if Opec+ might have to signal they are willing to reduce output even further,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at Oanda.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Saturday that concerns over near-term demand due to stress in the US banking system and an industrial slowdown, and elevated global supply due to limited compliance with Opec+ cuts were “overblown”.

The investment bank maintained its Brent price forecast of $95 per barrel by December and $100 by April. ANZ Research analysts said they believe that the market focus will now shift away from economic concerns to tightening oil supply.

The US is expected to report consumer price inflation figures for April on Wednesday, which could provide further clues on interest rate moves amid broad expectations that the US Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes.

Traders this week will also keenly watch Chinese economic indicators including trade, inflation, lending and money supply figures for April, as market participants continue to gauge economic recovery in the world's second largest oil consumer.

“Crude prices may continue to take the rebounding tailwind,” CMC Markets’ Teng said.

Reuters