London — Oil cartel Opec says it is close to a deal to cut oil output for the first time since 2008, a move that may halt a two-and-a-half-year price slump. The actions of individual member states tell a different story. Here is a look at the prospects for an agreement ahead of Opec’s November 30 meeting: Maths is not the issue The simple math supporting cuts looked solid at Opec’s meetings in June and December. Prices then were way below most members’ fiscal break-even points. An output cut now of 1.5-million barrels a day, or 5%, would need to boost the oil price by only $2.50 a barrel for Opec nations collectively to be better off. A $5 price increase would boost the value of what they pump by about $100 million a day. They didn’t make those cuts. Why? Because Saudi Arabia was set on a policy of defending its own share of the global market and putting pressure on high-cost producers elsewhere, particularly surging output from US shale formations. The world’s biggest exporter insi...
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