OECD says AI ‘revolution’ likely to disrupt labour markets

Paris — More than a quarter of jobs in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) rely on skills that could be easily automated in the coming artificial intelligence “revolution”, and workers fear they could lose their jobs to AI, the OECD said on Tuesday.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is a 38-member bloc, spanning mostly wealthy nations but also some emerging economies like Mexico and Estonia.

There is little evidence the emergence of AI is having a significant impact on jobs so far, but that may be because the revolution is in its early stages  and/or because firms so far prefer to rely on voluntary workforce adjustments. Any negative employment effects of AI may therefore take time to materialise, the OECD said.

At the same time, AI creates new tasks and jobs, particularly for high-skilled workers who have the right competencies to work with AI.

Jobs with the highest risk of being automated make up 27% of the labour force on average in OECD countries, with eastern European countries most exposed, the Paris-based organisation said in its 2023 Employment Outlook. 

Jobs at highest risk were defined as those using more than 25 of the 100 skills and abilities that AI experts consider can be easily automated.

About 20% of workers in finance and manufacturing (across seven OECD countries) said that they were very or extremely worried about job loss in the next ten years.

The report says: “AI appears to be different from previous digital technological changes in several ways:  it significantly expands the range of tasks that can be automated beyond just routine, non-cognitive tasks;  AI is a general-purpose technology, meaning that nearly every sector and occupation will be affected; and the speed of development is unprecedented.

“Although AI has the potential to improve certain aspects of job quality, there are also reports that AI can heighten work intensity and increase stress.

“In addition, the use of AI in the workplace opens up, or amplifies, a whole set of ethical issues (Chapter 6), some of which can also negatively impact on job quality. For example, AI can change the way work is monitored or managed, which can increase perceived fairness, but poses risks to workers’ privacy and autonomy to execute tasks. AI can also introduce or perpetuate bias. In addition, there are concerns around transparency and explainability, as well as around accountability. While many of these issues are not new, AI has the potential to amplify them.”

The survey was carried out before the explosive emergence of generative AI like ChatGPT.

Despite the anxiety over the advent of AI, two-thirds of workers already working with it said that automation had made their jobs less dangerous or tedious.

"How AI will ultimately impact workers in the workplace and whether the benefits will outweigh the risks, will depend on the policy actions we take," OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann told a news conference.

"Governments must help workers to prepare for the changes and benefit from the opportunities AI will bring about," he continued.

Minimum wages and collective bargaining could help ease the pressure that AI could put on wages while governments and regulators need to ensure workers rights are not compromised, the OECD said.

With Staff Writer

Reuters