GAVIN MAGUIRE: Europe’s heatwave pushes solar output to new highs

Europe’s enduring heatwave is pushing solar electricity output to new highs across the continent, with the combination of newly installed solar capacity along with bright, sunny skies helping break generation records across several countries. Electricity generation from solar sources in Europe had already climbed by nearly 11% over the first half of the year from the same period in 2022 to a record 129.2 terawatt hours, according to Ember.

So far in July, output has likely climbed higher still, with country-level solar production forecasts by Refinitiv calling for output to have climbed well above long-term averages in Spain, Germany, France and Italy — all key solar producers that have seen sustained hot weather in recent weeks.

Long-range forecasts by Refinitiv suggest solar output may climb by even more in August, with combined output in those key countries set to climb by 5% above the long-term average as a protracted heatwave steers solar production totals to new heights across the continent.

Climbing capacity 

A major driver behind Europe’s broad gains in solar generation has been the steep increases seen in capacity additions throughout the continent.

Overall embedded solar capacity in Europe increased by close to 20% in 2022 from the year before, with double-digit increases registered in all major solar producers in the region, Ember data shows.

Capacity in Germany, Europe’s top overall solar generator, rose by 12.1% to 66.55 terawatt hours (TWh), while number two generator Italy boosted capacity by 11% last year.

The Netherlands lifted installed solar capacity by a record 51.5% in 2022 and overtook Spain as the region’s third-largest solar capacity nation, while number four nation Spain increased solar capacity by just over 28%.

Fulfilling potential

While installed solar capacity is a critical first step in ensuring increased solar power generation in any country, a nation’s theoretical solar generation potential is another vital factor that determines overall solar output.

The theoretical potential metric was devised by The World Bank to create a harmonised view of the development potential for utility-scale solar projects across different countries and uses the amount of solar radiation available as well as the levelised cost of electricity to rank nations by their overall solar production potential.

In Europe, the highest scoring nations in terms of solar potential were those located in the southern half of the continent, where sunlight is more abundant than further north.

Spain was the highest-ranking European nation in the latest Global Solar Atlas, with an average theoretical solar potential value of 4.41 kilowatt hours per installed kilowatt-peak of the system capacity (kWh/kWp).

Turkey (4.32 kWh/kWp), Greece (4.14) and Italy (3.99) all also ranked relatively high on the solar potential table.

In contrast, northern European nations that tend to be cloudier and have fewer daylight hours posted much lower solar potential scores, with Germany and the Netherlands both scoring less than 3.0 kWh/kWp on the solar rankings.

Such significantly lower solar potential scores indicate far lower efficiency levels at solar production sites compared with those located further south in locations such as Spain and Greece.

In turn, those lower scores mean that utilities in northern Europe will likely need to rely more on other sources of clean energy generation, especially wind power, when looking to build out renewable power capacity.

But for power producers across southern Europe, solar assets are likely delivering strong output rates this year, especially amid the current heatwave generating hours of uninterrupted strong sunshine for several hours a day.

Reuters