The big plug-in: global electric car sales to reach 51.6-million in 2035

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales reached 7.7-million units in 2022, up from 1.4-million units in 2018, and are anticipated to reach 51.6-million units in 2035, driven by government mandates and infrastructure investments, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Battery electric passenger cars are expected to reach 44-million units by 2035 from 7.3-million units in 2022, with electric commercial vehicles to rise from 0.4-million units last year to 7.6-million units by 2035, says GlobalData.

“The EV sector registered exponential growth during the last decade due to depleting fossil fuel reserves and growing awareness about the impact of global warming,” says the firm.

“As EVs are a viable option to replace internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EV sales increased substantially in several countries despite the automotive industry facing supply chain constraints in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.”

GlobalData’s latest report, “Electric Vehicles Market Report, Update 2023 — Global Market Outlook, Trends, and Key Country Analysis”, reveals that during 2022-35 the total EV market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 15.9%, with passenger EVs to rise 26.1% and commercial EVs 15%.

“The increasing prices of petrol, growing EV infrastructure, including the number of charging stations, maintenance hubs and facilities related to electric vehicles, and growing concern about environmental pollution are the major reasons behind the increasing adoption of electric vehicles worldwide,” said Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, power analyst at GlobalData.

The Tesla Model Y became the first electric vehicle (EV) to become the world’s best-selling new car, with 267,200 units finding owners in the first quarter of this year. The feat is particularly noteworthy given the Model Y’s premium price, and it beat the 256,400 units recorded by the second-placed Toyota Corolla.

China is the world’s largest EV market with 5-million units sold in 2022, and seven of the 10 best-selling cars in China in June came with a plug. 

Being an early adopter of EVs, China has numerous local and international companies offering a range of EV models. The government’s focus on the promotion and adoption of EVs to reduce pollution is another important factor contributing to the growth of the EV market in China.

Saibasan adds: “The Asia-Pacific (Apac) region is leading the EV market in terms of annual sales globally, followed by Europe and the Americas. In 2022, Apac accounted for 69.3% of the sales, followed by Europe with 19% and the Americas with 10%. The presence of market leader China in the Apac region is the key factor for its major share. The region is anticipated to hold the major share of the market of 41.4%, followed by Europe with 31.6% and the Americas with 19.4% by 2035.”

The US government has set a target to make half of all new vehicles sold in the country zero-emission vehicles by 2030 and to establish a suitable network of 500,000 chargers to support the agenda of making EVs more accessible to all Americans for local and long-distance travel.

In 2022 the European Commission set a target of all new cars and vans registered in Europe to be zero-emission by 2035, except for internal combustion engine cars that run on climate-neutral e-fuels.

“The increasing concern over environmental pollution and the growing number of targets and policies related to the net zero carbon emission economies of different countries have fuelled the global demand for EVs. Reducing global carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050 is consistent with efforts to curb the long-term increase in average global temperatures to 1.5°C,” Saibasan said.  

EV sales in SA have been slow due to the high prices of battery-powered cars and the intermittent electricity supply. In 2022 local EV sales rose 132% to 506 units off very low base of 218 units in 2021.