GARY RYNHART: Tackling global inequality is the only way to decrease migration numbers

This year will see record numbers of national elections — 64 globally, with 18 here in Africa. Yet a major issue overshadowing elections is the feeling that democracy is not working.

Recent polls are sobering. A staggering 72% of South Africans say they would ditch democracy for an unelected leader if that leader could cut crime and deliver jobs.

A 2023 study by the Centre for the Future of Democracy (University of Cambridge) showed for the first time that slightly more people in developing countries (62%) are more favourably inclined towards China than towards the US (61%).

The issue is that too many people don’t see democracy delivering where it counts — providing decent jobs and equality of opportunity.

SA comedian Trevor Noah remarked early in his career that if the comedy thing didn’t work out he always had poverty to fall back on. The remark was on the money — often the only option for many is to hit the road and try their luck elsewhere.

There are about 300-million international migrants in the world. In addition, there are more than 100-million people who are either refugees, asylum seekers, internally displaced people or stateless people. Migration is driven by climate, war, persecution and lack of economic opportunity. By some (probably overly pessimistic) forecasts, 1.2-billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate change and natural disasters. 

Military conflicts are pervasive, with a trajectory that threatens more. Then there are the stunning levels of inequality in the world. The number of people in extreme poverty is about 700-million (equivalent to the populations of SA, Thailand, France, Brazil and the US combined).

One in 10 of the world’s population go to bed hungry each night. More than 30 countries in the world get more than 10% of their GDP from remittances from migrants.

What can be done? Rich countries, as well as a growing number of middle-income countries, face diminishing populations, intensifying the global competition for workers and talent. Meanwhile, most low-income countries are expected to see rapid population growth, putting them under pressure to create more jobs for young people. It’s a perfect fit, but it is politically toxic.

Supporting source countries through development aid is another approach, but this has proven largely ineffective in reducing irregular migration. A 2023 study led by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that aid causes only a brief, temporary reduction in asylum seeker numbers — in the most fragile countries there is none at all.

The obvious answer is to produce more economic success stories that can support regional and subregional growth. Effective economic and social development requires a burgeoning middle class to push socioeconomic progress. It’s the same principle for regional or subregional growth. Most trade happens with countries in close geographic proximity, which drives growth.

In late February, in the same week that the ANC was represented in Moscow at the Forum of Campaigners Against Modern Practices of Neo-Colonialism, Indonesia was accelerating its efforts to join the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD).

Argentina, Vietnam, Brazil, Malaysia, Thailand and Peru are also in the accession process. This has gone under the radar, but it’s a huge shift. What you have is evidence of large, important countries in the Americas and Asia moving up the development gears and aligning with Western democracies.

OECD membership has the potential to drive critical reforms to foster growth and jobs, tackle corruption and support inclusivity in candidate countries and, importantly, widen regional and subregional growth centres. No African country is on the accession ladder.

While we have seen increased numbers of African countries move up the development ladder to middle-income status, it is not happening fast enough. It is not providing enough people with economic opportunities to stay in their home countries. The proceeds of growth have simply been too heavily concentrated among selected groups and in rich countries, resulting in stunning and unsustainable levels of inequality.

Correcting this to produce a fairer global economy is the only way to stem migration and restore faith in democracy. The real worry is that migration is an issue that is only in its infancy. What we now have looks like gated communities of the rich north threatened by desperate people fleeing in ever larger numbers.

A serious, joined up response is needed, with an appreciation that all of these issues are interrelated, demanding a shared responsibility to find solutions. Co-ordinated strategies to develop more regional and subregional growth poles can be part of that.

• Rynhart is senior specialist in employers’ activities with the International Labour Organisation, based in SA.